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Price receipts · updated daily

Every +EV flag, against the closing price

Since July 2026, 2,347 +EV flags have been graded against the closing price. The price we flagged beat the close 41% of the time and matched it 24%; on average it was +0.8% against the closing price.

Beat the close
41%
Matched it
24%
Worse
35%
Avg vs close
+0.8%

By sport

SportFlagsBeatMatchedWorseAvg vs close
MLB1,74435%26%39%−0.3%
NHL28168%15%17%+3.9%
WNBA25548%21%31%+4.4%
AFL6758%25%16%+4.5%

Every sport is shown, including the ones where the flags did not beat the close.

By month

MonthFlagsBeatMatchedWorseAvg vs close
July 20261030%70%0%+2.1%
August 202613850%25%25%+2.6%
September 20261,76136%25%39%−0.1%
October 202643861%20%19%+3.8%

The latest receipts

DateFlagFlagged atClosed atvs close
16 OctZach Benson Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.50 PointsBet$1.50 PointsBetmatched
16 OctNikita Kucherov Under 1.5 assists · NHL$1.42 Unibet$1.42 Unibetmatched
16 OctDrake Batherson Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.59 PointsBet$1.56 Unibet+1.9%
16 OctGavin McKenna Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.00 Unibet$2.00 Unibetmatched
16 OctJonathan Marchessault Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.59 PointsBet$1.53 PointsBet+3.9%
16 OctShohei Ohtani Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.63 PointsBet$1.45 Ladbrokes+12.4%
16 OctBrandon Hagel Under 1.5 points · NHL$1.37 Unibet$1.38 Unibet−0.7%
16 OctBrady Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.61 Unibet$1.45 Sportsbet+11.0%
16 OctMatthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.80 Unibet$1.72 Sportsbet+4.7%
16 OctAdam Jiricek Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.25 PointsBet$1.95 PointsBet+15.4%
16 OctYegor Sharangovich Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.77 Unibet$1.74 PointsBet+1.7%
16 OctJack Roslovic Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.63 PointsBet$1.49 Unibet+9.4%
16 OctBrayden Point Under 1.5 points · NHL$1.33 Unibet$1.32 Unibet+0.8%
16 OctTage Thompson Under 1.5 points · NHL$1.35 Unibet$1.36 Unibet−0.7%
16 OctRoman Kantserov Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.63 Unibet$1.68 Unibet−3.0%
16 OctNeal Pionk Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.75 Unibet$1.63 PointsBet+7.4%
16 OctBrayden Schenn Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.95 Unibet$1.83 Unibet+6.6%
16 OctDylan Cozens Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.58 Unibet$1.63 PointsBet−3.1%
16 OctJordan Spence Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.25 PointsBet$1.63 PointsBet+38.0%
16 OctMatty Beniers Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.75 Unibet$1.66 Unibet+5.4%
16 OctFabian Zetterlund Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.20 PointsBet$2.05 Unibet+7.3%
16 OctPatrick Kane Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.77 Unibet$1.69 PointsBet+4.7%
16 OctAnthony Mantha Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.83 Unibet$1.79 Unibet+2.2%
16 OctPatrick Kane Under 0.5 assists · NHL$1.76 Unibet$1.58 Unibet+11.4%
16 OctCarter Yakemchuk Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.05 PointsBet$1.73 Unibet+18.5%
16 OctMatthew Wood Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.84 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+7.6%
16 OctMark Scheifele Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.63 Unibet$1.54 Unibet+5.8%
16 OctThomas Chabot Under 0.5 assists · NHL$1.63 Unibet$1.57 Unibet+3.8%
16 OctChristian Dvorak Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.00 PointsBet$1.90 PointsBet+5.3%
16 OctWarren Foegele Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.90 PointsBet$1.50 PointsBet+26.7%
16 OctTeuvo Teravainen Under 0.5 points · NHL$1.53 Unibet$1.63 Unibet−6.1%
16 OctJack Roslovic Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.70 Unibet$1.53 PointsBet+11.1%
16 OctJosh Doan Under 0.5 points · NHL$1.86 Unibet$1.87 Unibet−0.5%
16 OctKirill Kaprizov Under 3.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.82 Unibet$1.57 Unibet+15.9%
16 OctMason McTavish Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.58 Unibet$1.54 Unibet+2.6%
16 OctTomas Hertl Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.54 Unibet$1.40 Sportsbet+10.0%
16 OctTyler Toffoli Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.62 Unibet$1.58 Unibet+2.5%
16 OctJoel Eriksson Ek Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.85 Unibet$1.79 Unibet+3.4%
16 OctViktor Arvidsson Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.14 Unibet$1.90 Unibet+12.6%
16 OctMacklin Celebrini Over 0.5 assists · NHL$1.74 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+1.8%
16 OctLeon Draisaitl Over 0.5 assists · NHL$1.65 Unibet$1.71 Unibet−3.5%
15 OctMacklin Celebrini Over 0.5 assists · NHL$1.78 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+4.1%
15 OctJoel Eriksson Ek Under 0.5 assists · NHL$1.53 Unibet$1.45 Unibet+5.5%
15 OctJunior Caminero Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.56 PointsBet$1.45 Ladbrokes+7.6%
15 OctTom Wilson Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.59 PointsBet$1.53 Sportsbet+3.9%
15 OctMikko Rantanen Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.56 PointsBet$1.45 Sportsbet+7.6%
15 OctNick Suzuki Over 0.5 points · NHL$1.48 PointsBet$1.42 Unibet+4.2%
15 OctRyan Leonard Over 0.5 points · NHL$2.20 PointsBet$2.05 PointsBet+7.3%
15 OctRoope Hintz Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.56 Unibet$1.56 PointsBetmatched
15 OctCole Caufield Over 0.5 points · NHL$1.63 PointsBet$1.57 PointsBet+3.8%

How the receipts work

  • A flag is a price the app showed as +EV: better than the market's fair price for that side, at the moment it appeared.
  • The close is the best price on the same side and the same line from two or more Australian bookmakers when the game starts.
  • A flag beats the close when the price we flagged was longer than that closing price. Beating the close consistently is the strongest sign a price was genuinely wrong, because the closing price carries everything the market learned before the start.
  • Flags whose line moved, or whose side no longer had two prices at the close, are left out rather than guessed.
  • Receipts measure prices only. They are not a record of bets won or lost, and nothing here is a tip.

More on why the close matters: what closing line value is. How our projections fare against results is on the accuracy page.

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